You can argue all you like about the merits or otherwise of the AFL's pre-finals bye, but there's no disputing how appetising the first weekend of the premiership race always is, with four great match-ups on the menu.
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And in 2023, things look particularly tight at the top, with no fewer than five teams all being quoted at $10 or shorter to win the flag.
That's rare, but with fifth-favourite Carlton having really come with a rush to snap at the heels of Collingwood, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Melbourne, completely understandable.
![Jack Crisp handballs in Collingwood and Melbourne's clash earlier this year. The two teams play again on Thursday night. Picture by Getty Images Jack Crisp handballs in Collingwood and Melbourne's clash earlier this year. The two teams play again on Thursday night. Picture by Getty Images](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/8mt7fPj3AeZSAF4grZ2EUc/672be218-1218-4867-8381-6deb1bc91f5f.jpg/r0_0_3789_1996_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
It's a triple-header at the MCG, with Collingwood and Melbourne up first on Thursday.
Like Brisbane and Port Adelaide on Saturday evening at the Gabba, they'll be jousting for the right to go straight to a preliminary final a fortnight's hence.
For Carlton and Sydney on Friday night, and St Kilda and Greater Western Sydney on Saturday, though, it's sudden death all the way from here.
Here's how I expect things to pan out.
COLLINGWOOD v MELBOURNE (Thursday night, MCG)
This is one of the most eagerly-anticipated finals in recent memory, the Magpies on top nearly all year, Melbourne a little hit or miss but having worked up to its best at the perfect moment with seven wins from the last eight games.
There's key absentees for both, with Nick Daicos's return on the way for the Pies, but not just yet. Key defenders Darcy Moore and Nathan Murphy, crucially, will be there, however.
Melbourne, meanwhile, is having to cobble together yet another forward combination after the tragic season-ending knee injury to Jake Melksham, who'd been one of the main architects of that improved form and scoreboard output.
Their King's Birthday clash was a ripper, with the Demons just hanging on to win by four points.
The winner of this one will get a magnificent leg-up to a grand final berth via a preliminary final on their home ground. But I don't think it's impossible we could see a grand final re-match between them, either.
Tip: Collingwood by 2 points.
CARLTON v SYDNEY (Friday night, MCG)
Both these sides have staged quite remarkable turnarounds from dire positions late in the season.
Indeed, both were at one stage as low as 15th on the ladder, the Blues after round 15, and the Swans a fortnight later.
Carlton got on a sizeable roll with nine straight wins, rediscovering some cleaner, quicker ball movement and with spearhead Charlie Curnow on fire up forward, winning the Coleman Medal.
The Swans' comeback wasn't nearly as spectacular, but until a final-round loss to Melbourne, they had won six games in a row.
Sydney will get critical small forward Tom Papley back for this game, while the Blues crucially got game time into Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra and Mitch McGovern against the Giants.
The Swans had a comfortable win over Carlton back in round 11 but that was a much lesser version of the Blues than we're seeing now. And it was also at the SCG. The MCG is a far different proposition, however, and Sydney is 0-3 there this season.
Tip: Carlton by 22 points.
ST KILDA v GWS (Saturday afternoon, MCG)
This elimination final almost feels like a clash of the "ugly ducklings", the two finalists who made it despite few pundits seeming to believe they could, or with any faith in their capacity to go further.
It's been a phenomenal coaching performance from debutant Adam Kingsley with GWS, but Lyon also with the Saints second time around.
Both their sides have remained consistently competitive even in defeat. The Saints have lost just one game by any more than 28 points thanks to Lyon's steely defensive resolve, St Kilda No.1 in the competition for fewest points conceded.
GWS, meanwhile, lost only twice by any more than 21 points.
The venue shapes as a factor in this clash. St Kilda has played at the MCG just twice this season for a 1-1 scoreline, but the Giants haven't fared well at all there, losing their last four appearances and getting smashed by Collingwood in their only 2023 game on the ground.
It's the Saints for me on this one, as always not by a heap, but enough.
Tip: St Kilda by 16 points.
BRISBANE v PORT ADELAIDE (Saturday night, Gabba)
With three of four finals at the MCG, this one at the Gabba feels a little "off-Broadway", but the location is a huge plus for the Lions, unbeaten in 11 games on their fortress this season and 21 wins from 23 games there over the past two seasons.
Victory here would put Brisbane just one more home win away from a grand final berth. But Port will be in a similar position if it can pull off what the bookmakers are saying would be the biggest upset of the first four finals.
It's not necessarily that great a stretch. Port smashed Brisbane in the first round this season (in Adelaide, admittedly) and is an excellent 7-3 on the road this year. Then again, the Power haven't won against the Lions at the Gabba since 2017.
The Lions have been beaten in home finals before, of course, but Chris Fagan's team does seem to have a bit more mental fibre about it in 2023. That should get it over the line.
Tip: Brisbane by 10 points.